Craig, CEO and Co-Founder of UrComped, had the opportunity to talk with Vegas Dave, the professional sports better who made headlines last year after winning $2.5 Million on a bet on the Kansas City Royals and is poised to win $2.3 Million on the Broncos in the Super Bowl this week. In it he tells us the amazing story of how he got into sports handicapping, what's helped him be successful, and which bets he likes in Super Bowl 50. Check out the interview with Vegas Dave below and post in the comments section what you think.
Craig from UrComped: Hi Dave. Thanks so much for taking some time out of your schedule to talk. How are you doing?
Vegas Dave: Good, just getting ready for super bowl.
UrComped: So professional sports betting is a profession that a lot of guys dream about doing. How did you get into it?
Vegas Dave: Well as a child I used to collect baseball cards. I was an entrepreneur at 12 or 13 years old. I was really good at buying rookie cards of guys I knew were going to be good like Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey Jr and then flipping the cards at the end of season for three to five times my money. So I have always been good at making predictions in sports and I have always been an entrepreneur. And that ties into my sports betting career. I have had a lot of success at predicting long term things like who will win the World Series and who will win the Super Bowl. I predicted the World Series winner three of the last five years before the first week of the season, so I am pretty good doing that.
UrComped: I’d say much better than “pretty good.” What has changed in your approach to sports betting from when you started to today?
Vegas Dave: I play much more selectively now. Most people play for action, I play to win. For example, baseball is my best sport. I only pick about than about 30 to 50 games during the season when there are easily over a 1000 games you can pick from [editor’s note: According to Wikipedia, there are 2430 games in a season . So Vegas Dave bets on about 2% of all MLB games]. In the last three years I am 125-3 overall on my “system plays”. Basically I’m more selective and I don’t “chase” losses. A lot of people try to beat the books every weekend. You can’t beat the books every weekend. You’ve got to look at it from month to month and year to year.
UrComped: 125-3 over three years? Holy crap. What are your system plays?
Vegas Dave: My system plays are the games that I feel have the highest probability of winning and the ones I recommend to my customers. I don’t really play anything else besides system plays. There are people that want my daily picks and parlays and want a ton of action, but I pretty much just stick to my system plays. Especially starting this year forward because it’s been working so well for myself and my players.
UrComped: What are your favorite sports books?
Vegas Dave: I really don’t have one anymore. It used to be the Westgate, which is the old Hilton and the biggest super book in US, but they kicked me out for betting, so they won’t take my action anymore after my big Royal World Series win. So I really don’t have a favorite book, they are all limiting me now. So like Caesars will only take $300 dollars from me which is a joke but they will take $100,000’s of dollars from other people. Floyd Mayweather bets through Cantor which is the M Hotel, they let him bet 6-figure bets and I can only win $50,000 so I really don’t have a favorite sportsbook anymore because they are all cutting my action.
UrComped: I know you have some bets that will pay out huge if the Broncos win the Super Bowl, which you predicted before the season even started. Where were those that placed?
Vegas Dave: William Hill, the Mirage, but the problem is they limit me. So I got 14:1 odds and put $40,000 dollars, they won’t take a $100,000 dollars bet at 14:1, they will take $25,000 at 14:1 and then they’ll move it down to 8:1 and they let me bet it again, but I lose a lot of value that way. Other casinos will only allow me to win $10,000 on a future bet so I have to go from casino to casino to casino and when I find a casino where I like the odds they’ll only let me play a quarter of what I want to play and then they move the line and let me bet it again but by then the value sucks.
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UrComped: Do some high level sports betters like you, do they have people that will place bets for them to get around the betting limits?
Vegas Dave: No, it’s not going to work that way because if you try to up what’s called a “runner” and send him to Westgate to place a $10,000 bet they’ll say “we don’t know who you are, get a player card and we will start you off in a $100 to $300 per game and then you establish relationship, over a couple years they’ll let you move up to betting for $5,000 or $10,000 on a game. But I don’t have people that will do that week after week for two to three years just to help me out. So the sport books are smart because you have to have a relationship with them to build credibility before you can place bigger bets. So they aren’t going to let someone just go, who they don’t have the system, fire $10k to $20k a game.
UrComped: Got you, it makes lot of sense. Is it cool if I put that in the article?
Vegas Dave: That’s fine. Because everyone’s like “get a runner.” It’s not that easy. I mean I am a pretty smart guy if it worked I would have started doing it a long time ago. The sports book know. If you send them someone new they’ll tell them they need to establish a relationship. Even if someone bet a couple of thousand dollars in the past on a players card, they are not going to let you fire $50000 a game. There is no one in Vegas that’s betting $100,000 to $200,000 a year on future bets, there’s no one. So if I send someone to put a $50,000 futures bet on the St. Louis Cardinals, it’s a red flag. They know it’s for me. Because who else does that?
UrComped: Great point. You mentioned that a lot of these books will take Floyd Mayweather’s money, but they’re not taking yours, is that because of the publicity or is it because you win more often or what do you think?
Vegas Dave: I don’t know, I don’t know of Floyd’s business, but you know if he’s betting six figures a game and he wins one, loses one, he’s losing hundreds or thousands of dollars in juice a week ["juice" is the casino's cut for taking the bets, typically 10% per game]. With me I don’t play every day, I play very selectively and I also bet the Futures and the Future is a one-time bet and the pay out is, 10 to 30 times the money. The Royals [World Series win] was 30 times the money almost, so they don’t like players like that. Too much liability. Someone bets $100,000 to win 2.5 million that’s a big liability so a lot of casinos won’t take that. I’m having trouble figuring out if I want to bet another $100,000 to $200,000 on the superbowl, but they won’t let me bet it all in one place. I have to split it up which is becoming more of a headache every year for me.
Sports books will take Floyd Mayweather's action, but they stay away from Vegas Dave...
UrComped: It seems like prop bets and in play wagering are getting a lot of attention, do you like to wager on either of those?
Vegas Dave: I don’t like prop bets, I do a lot of in-play wagering, they will allow me to win $ 10,000 a game on in play at William Hill, which is probably the most they allow anyone to win. With me I have 7 tvs in my sportsbook so in-play is very good for me. I can see what’s going on in the game, how the pitcher looks. I know the bullpens like the back of my hand. So if you know what you’re doing and watch all the games then in-play can be very good. But it is also a very impulsive bet so it can be dangerous for the wrong players.
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UrComped: So, you have sports book in your house and so do you use an app to bet?
Vegas Dave: Yeah I use the William Hill app.
UrComped: So you mentioned you don’t normally like prop bets. Are there any that you like in the Super Bowl?
Vegas Dave: The ones that I think are interesting are the prop bets for MVP are very high for Denver, I mean the defensive people like Talib are 75-1. 2000 dollars gets you 150,000. So, I think Denver is going to win the Super Bowl and if Denver wins then one of their players will have to win the MVP award. And the odds are all 20-1 or higher except for Manning which is 3-1 and then he usually doesn’t have the numbers to win an MVP. So I think the value for the prop bets is in the MVP for the Broncos because if the Broncos win someone in the team has to be MVP and all their key players are all 20-1 or higher where the Panthers are -140 for Newton and 5-1 or 15-1 for their key players.
UrComped: That’s brilliant. When I go to Vegas, I like playing teasers and parlays and the occasional round robin bet. Are those sucker bets or can you make money on them?
Vegas Dave: No, no, no, I mean I hit three Round Robins this year for between 300k and 500k. Round Robins are good but you have to play the dogs and you have to play them plus money. Because if you hit 3 out of 4 round robins and they’re all minus 140 or 130 then there’s no value there. I do like teasers a lot in the NFL because there’s so much parity. Getting seven points in the NFL is huge. So if you get a team at home +4 and you tease it to +11 then that’s pretty much money at home in NFL. People don’t understand that six points or seven points is a lot in the NFL because of the parity. Not so much in college football, that’s why I think the spread is ridiculous for the super bowl, I mean six points with the best defense on a neutral field which is technically just two teams playing on the road.
UrComped: So if the spread is at 6 points in the Super Bowl and you teased it…
Vegas Dave: 13 points.
UrComped: So I LOVED reading your bio about how you got started. That took stones. It said you took out a student loan for 10K and you bet it all on red on roulette and that’s how you started your bank roll for your sports betting career.
Vegas Dave: Yeah, my parents really wanted me to get an education so I picked a school as close to the casinos as I could, UNLV. I never wanted to get an education, I was always an entrepreneur. I always wanted to work for myself. I could never imagine working a real job for 40 years of my life. So, I mean I just took a loan for 10K, and instead of buying books and stuff like that I just went to the Palms casino because it was closest to my apartment and I put it all on Red and it hit. So that turned $10k into 20k and I started sports betting $300 to $500 per game and that was the start. I don’t play any more table games. I’ll never touch those again. I don’t even know how to play craps. I’m very disciplined. I stick to what I’m good at which is sports. And I narrowed it down to baseball and football. I don’t touch other sports. Occasionally I’ll do UFC. I’ve been pretty successful in UFC, but I stick to what I’m good at which is mostly baseball, football.
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UrComped: Do you do College Football or just Pros.
Vegas Dave: Both.
Do chicks dig sports bettors? A picture is worth a thousand words...
UrComped: Your website, I enjoyed checking it out because I enjoyed reading your bio, but also there’s a lot of pics of you and some smoking hot ladies. Is it fair to say that girls dig professional sports bettors?
Vegas Dave: I can’t say sports betters. I mean there’s some out there that have no personality. I mean I’m pretty big in the Vegas night scene. When we win we’re doing bottle service and spending money and girls are pretty attracted to that. My tables are pretty fun, it’s always good energy. So good energy and fun attract beautiful women so I mean I’m always surrounded by them. I’m lucky.
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UrComped: That sounds like a blast to party with Vegas Dave. We’ll have to call you next time we’re in Vegas.
Vegas Dave: I’ve actually been cutting back on that lately. I have a girlfriend now and I’m just so focused on building my business. Especially I’m in the spotlight more now and in the media so I can’t be out til 4 am raging anymore. I’m really focused on growing the business.
UrComped: So when you talk about your business. Are you talking about your personal sports bets or is there more to it?
Vegas Dave: No, no, I’m talking about the consulting side. I started out with five players four years ago, now we’re over 4,000 that pay me per sports and a onetime fee. I email the plays weekly, they place the bets, I don’t take a cut from it. They keep all the winnings. That’s it. I consult for thousands and thousands of people. And they’re all over the world. Different continents, different countries all over the world, so…pretty simple.
UrComped: And are those your system bets or are there other bets too?
Vegas Dave: Mostly systems and it’s going to be even more on system bets going forward. Because I have so many people focused on my picks and so many haters that if I don’t hit a game they like to magnify it and blow it up. So I have to really focus on my best plays which are my system bets. But I also teach my players discipline and money management. Do not chase and play more selectively. Again the whole plan is to win money and not how many games you play in the season. I’m not an action player, I just want to generate income at the end of the year.
UrComped: So I did read that a lot of your success is money management, having discipline, not playing every game, could you elaborate a little more on that?
Vegas Dave: Well yeah, you know most people out there can relate. They play Thursdsay night college football game. Then they pick a parlay for the college games on Saturday where it’s the 9 am, 12:30 games, then the 5 o’clock [pacific time] games. They have action on games all throughout the day. Then on Sunday they’ll take a morning game, the afternoon game, the Sunday night game. Then everybody plays the Monday night football game which I call the “degenerate special”. I haven’t really touched the Monday night game in years. Everyone plays the Monday night game because A, they lost this weekend and they need to win it all back so they’re betting their rent money or B, they’re ahead on the weekend so they figured they can bet a little extra because it’s house money. So, people want to play every game, every televised game and I tell people some of the best bets you make are the bets you don’t make. Again play to win, not for action.
UrComped: Would your system work for somebody who is totally new to sports betting?
Vegas Dave: Actually some of my best players are beginners and females, because they won’t try to reinvent the wheel. They won’t question what I’m telling them. I’ve got a girl that bet $3,000 on the Royals and she won $90,000 and she’s 23 years old. It changed her life. So I gave it out in week one. She made more money betting with me weekly than she did at her job. I mean if you could read an e-mail and push a button, you can do this. Like I said some of my best players are girls that don’t know anything about sports but they can follow directions. A lot of my players are already degenerate gamblers who take my play and parlay it with their favorite play or take my play and tease it with another play. It bewilders me that people pay for a service and don’t listen to it. But like I said the best players I have are beginners and females, because they don’t try to reinvent the wheel.
UrComped: That’s great. So you mentioned that you’re very selective about the games you bet, do you enjoy watching sporting events for fun with friends or is it impossible to watch a game without being a handicapper.
Vegas Dave: It’s tough to watch a game without betting, but I’m a different person. I have to watch the games because for my handicapping. So say there is seven games on at one time and I may have money on only one game, but I need to pay close attention to the other six because I need to know why they won or why they lost. A lot of people just put all their faith in algorithms and stats and they just check the box score to see who won. But the box score can be very deceiving. The score might be 30-0 they think “oh it was a blow out” but you might not know that for instance Carson Palmer threw six interceptions and that team beat themselves or if the referee made a lot of terrible calls or there was a key injury in the game. So I’m a very visual person and that’s why I watch games I don’t have money on because that’s part of handicapping and learning the pros and cons of each team. I watch hundreds of games during the football and baseball season.
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UrComped: I know the NFL made the All-11 camera angles available recently, which used to be just available to coaches. Is that something you find value in?
Vegas Dave: Not really.
UrComped: So, a few months after you made millions successfully predicting the Royals to win the World Series, you stand to make a lot of money on the Broncos if they win.
Vegas Dave: Yeah, about $2.3 million.
UrComped: Where do you plan on watching the game and how do you plan on celebrating if you win?
Vegas Dave: Like for the World Series I went to every home game in the playoffs and world series except for the final game. The final game I watched it with my parents. It will be the same with the super bowl this year. Any time I have this kind of money or a chance to have record breaking numbers in the sports industry, I like to watch it with my family to share the memory. Because win or lose, it will be a great memory.
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UrComped: That’s awesome. Anything we didn’t cover that you like to talk about?
Vegas Dave: It’s a tough industry to be in, you know like I tell people there’s more pro athletes than pro sports bettors and every one knows how hard it is to be a pro athlete. It’s very, very tough, I tell people 50% skill, work ethic and luck because you do need some luck and the other 50% is money management. I like to compare it to body building and fitness. A lot of people say oh it’s all gym and weight lifting, but really 50% is nutrition. It’s just like sports betting. 50% is skill and work ethic in preparation and the other 50% is money management. That’s what a lot of people lack and that’s why 99% of the people in this industry fail. They may have skill but they don’t have the other 50%. They don’t have money management discipline.
UrComped: What would you say are like the different skills between you and the handicapper that works for the sportsbooks setting the lines?
Vegas Dave: Well, people who set the lines all they want is an even amount of people to bet on both sides of the game so they just make money on the juice. That’s why it’s set at -110 [for the house edge]. For example, with the spread, if they take $100,000 on Carolina and then $100,000 on Denver, they make $10,000 without any risk or liability. That’s their goal to balance the books. My job, my goal is to beat the books. Their goal is to balance them. There’s a big difference between balancing the books and beating them.
UrComped: Got it, do you think in another life you could have been successful working for the sports book?
Vegas Dave: I don’t think they could pay me enough. I make too much money with what I’m doing. A lot of people have approached me about being a sports analyst to write articles or be a commentator but you know they only make 200-300k a year which is W2 so you’re only bringing home $150,000 a year. I can make that in a month. I mean I enjoy those kinds of things but it would take away from what I’m good at. I mean my business is growing exponentially every year. I mean if the Broncos hit and I predicted that in August before the first snap of the season that the Broncos would win the Super Bowl at 16-1 odds. If it hits then there goes my name again [in the media] and the business grows tenfold again. I’m 99% sure they cover the game and I’m about 80% sure that they win the game outright. I’m not really worried, I actually think the public is going to get killed on Carolina.
UrComped: So, what do you see as the future of your brand and your business?
Vegas Dave: I don’t know. It keeps growing. I remember when I started I thought “if I get to 100 players it’s a pretty big business.” Then I passed that, then passed 1000, and now it’s over 4000 players. It’s a pretty big business. Lately I’ve been in touch with a lot of hedge fund people because they just changed the law and now hedge funds can bet on sports. So I think that might be the next step, because there are people who have some stocks and mutual funds, but I went 52-1 in baseball last year and I predicted the Royals at +3000 which is 30-1 odds to win the world series. I don’t know any mutual funds or stocks that are paying 15-30 times your money in a six month period. So, I think the next step is me working with some hedge funds and investors for sports betting. There are a lot of people that want me to write a book but I still feel like there are more accomplishments and achievements I’m going to make in the next four to five years. There’s no point in me doing a book now, I want to write a book when I’m all said and done.
UrComped: It has been such a pleasure speaking to you. You got a fascinating life and your success speaks for itself, so it’s really been fun to hear where you came from and get some insights from you.
Vegas Dave: I appreciate it, thanks for having me.
Here’s Vegas Dave’s FREE analysis of why the Broncos will win the Super Bowl.