The Road to the Big Game
Background: I had the chance to meet Craig on his most recent visit to Vegas. He's a great guy. I'm both honored and thrilled that he offered me an opportunity to write an article for the URComped community. I hope this info helps all of you profit.
After training camps (which include a 4-week preseason) and 17 weeks of grueling competition, the #NFL reached the playoffs. Amidst the hype surrounding certain teams, there was a hard lesson learned by the players during wild card weekend:
It's January and many teams are quickly realizing that they don't belong.
Much credit should be given to these teams and players for their efforts throughout the season to make the playoffs. However, when the playoffs begin, it's a different animal altogether. See, in the playoffs, 60% (18 teams) of the league is already at home. In most cases from the team's perspective, your main competitors are also already at home. When I say main competitors, I'm referring to the fact that teams face each division opponent twice per season. Therefore, for a division champ like the Atlanta Falcons, they will not have the ability to feast on the weaker teams in the NFC South any longer.
This is an area often overlooked by many analysts on major networks. They like to focus on a team's records and statistics, but fail to realize who these teams compiled their stats against.
The excerpt below is from our January High Roller Fund Report. We looked at how a team like the Giants performed outside their division against quality competition:
The New York Giants are 2-2 SU against teams with current winning records outside the NFC East. Perhaps more importantly is the wild card G-men are 0-2 SU on the road in the same scenario.
The Giants, who had a better SU record than the Packers, lost 38-13 in the wild card round in Green Bay. That was their third loss this season to a quality team on the road.
Another excerpt from January's report was concerning the wild card Miami Dolphins:
Miami is only 1-3 SU against teams with current winning records outside the AFC East. That could come into play in the postseason. The most impressive fact regarding the Dolphins is that they continued to win without starting QB Ryan Tannehill.
While that isn't a direct statement to go against the Dolphins, further research showed that when the Dolphins "continued to win", they were beating up on the weaker teams in the league. When they faced a team with a winning SU record, they lost.
The Giants and Dolphins both had good seasons overall. However, as far as the playoffs go, it quickly became evident that neither belonged.
So now we can look forward to the remaining playoff teams. With all the wild card teams knocked out, all that remains are the division champs.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons Line: Atlanta -5 Over/Under: 52
A high-flying rematch of the week six matchup when the Hawks beat the Falcons. S Earl Thomas was great for the Hawks in that game. He logged an interception, pass breakups and laid the wood to the Falcons' receivers. This time around there is no Thomas but they will have S Kam Chancellor who missed the first matchup. Atlanta produced the best offense in the league logging 6.7 yards per play and 12.3 yards per point. We anticipate the action to be split close to evenly on this game as you can make a case for both sides.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots Line: New England -16 Over/Under: 44
That's so disrespectful. A 16-point underdog? In the playoffs? Wow. If you're on the Texans, this should be used as bulletin board material. In terms of defense, the Texans are the best team remaining in the playoffs holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play. In terms of offense, the Texans are, by far, the worst team remaining in the playoffs only producing 4.7 yards per play. The Texans have to shorten the game to have any chance. They'll need to keep the scoring low and the clock running or it's going to be a long day in Foxborough. Even with a huge spread, we expect to see the majority of the betting tickets and crowd go toward the Pats.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Line: Kansas City -1.5 Over/Under: 44.5
This a rematch of the week four game that saw the Steelers annihilate the Chiefs 43-14 in a game that really wasn't even that close. Pittsburgh led 36-0 after three quarters and I'm quite sure that left a sour taste in the mouths of the Chiefs. Kansas City is the champ of one of the most competitive divisions in football this season. However, we're not sure they would be the champ had it not been for the season-ending fibula injury to Raiders QB Derek Carr. The action on this game is likely be split down the middle.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys Line: Dallas -4.5 Over/Under: 52.5
The Packers had a dominating performance against the Giants in the wild card round pushing their win streak to seven games SU. Unlike the Dolphins win streak, the Packers win streak includes quality wins over Houston and Seattle. Both of those teams are still in the playoffs heading into this weekend. Due to this, we expect to see more betting tickets written for the Packers even though the Cowboys have been quite impressive throughout the season.
If the Odds Could Talk
Above are the odds to win the Big Game in February. If these odds had a voice, they would be telling you that the Patriots are overwhelming favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy. In fact, there is a Patriots vs. The Field betting option where the odds on the field are only -200. Needless to say, the Pats are heavy favorites if you like to bet on the chalk.
There's some value in the other teams (specifically in the NFC) if you're willing to do some shopping for better lines. In either case, good luck if you're betting the playoffs and I hope some of this info helps you cash your tickets.
Good Luck!
Duane
High Roller Fund
About the author:
Duane Cousin is manager of the High Roller Fund and author of the High Roller Fund Report. Duane also posts articles and information on sports betting on LinkedIn. More info on the fund can be found here . The reports can be found on Amazon